Wednesday, November 04, 2009

"Deepening" split?

Growing.  Worsening.  Deepening.  Increasing.

These are all words used by the media in stories where they are pushing a narrative.   If oppositon to the Iraq war was growing and increasing every day, every time it was brought up during the Bush administration, opposition should've been up to about 260% by the end of his term.

So I see story this morning about the NY-23 race...
Democrat Bill Owens took a surprising victory in a special election Tuesday in Upstate New York, winning a House seat that Republicans had controlled since 1872 and, in the process, potentially deepening a split that emerged within the GOP during the campaign.
A split, you say?   51% of the vote went to someone other than the Democrat.  Of that 51%, 88% went to Hoffmann, and 12% went to Scozafava.

For that split to deepen, the GOP base would have to move farther to the left.   I would call this a surface crack that has improved dramatically since a year ago.

One question I have is how many of the Scozafava votes were cast before she dropped out of the race? If it were a significant percentage of her 6% of the tally, that would show even less of a "split".

I think this race sends a pretty clear message to the GOP.   To win, stop trying to be Democrat Lite™.  Had you not tried, this seat would likely have remained Republican.

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